If all pageant contestants were created equal, the betting odds for the Miss USA Pageant would be 51-to-1 for every contestant.
But, no, not all contestants are created equal, and to Johnny Avello, that is the beauty of handicapping beauty contests.
Avello is the executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas. On Thursday morning, I asked if he’d provide his odds for the 2011 Miss USA Pageant at Planet Hollywood Theater for Performing Arts. About four hours later, he sent over a full odds sheet listing the betting price (for entertainment purposes) on every contestant.
Miss California Alyssa Campanella was the favorite in the 51-woman field at 8-to-1. And the favorite established by Avello won Sunday’s competition.
Nice. But how did he do it, exactly? The short answer is, Avello does his research and is an expert in many fields. He’s especially well-educated about films, and his Oscar picks are typically close to the mark.
But pageants are often complicated competitions to gauge for the high number of participants. Today, I asked Avello to provide a point-by-point primer of how he handicaps pageants. He e-mailed back with the following areas of research (my own comments in parenthesis):
• Personal life (a compelling life story can sway a judge’s opinion of any contestant; conversely, regretful episodes can cause a contestant’s pageant aspirations to come unhinged).
• Major competitions in which she has participated and any awards or achievements earned (Avello did note in his odds posting for Miss California that she had competed in Miss Teen New Jersey four years ago when living in Manalapan).
• Personality, and how they express themselves when speaking.
• Stories or incidents which may attract awareness or added attention (similar to a contestant’s personal life, an issue that can work for or against a beauty queen).
• Overall looks and stylish appearance in past competitions in evening gown and swimsuit competition.
Also, for Miss America, Avello notes a contestant’s talent and stated platform, areas not judged in the Miss USA Pageant.
As Avello wrote, after setting the favorites, middle-of-the-field contestants and long shots, “It’s all on a wing and a prayer.”
Follow John Katsilometes on Twitter at twitter.com/JohnnyKats. Also, follow "Kats With the Dish" at twitter.com/KatsWithTheDish.
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